Getting to Ten in Ten

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The other day I saw a video and presentation called Ten in Ten – Ten Technology Trends that Will Change the World in Ten Years by Dave Evans, the Chief Futurist at Cisco.  Standing in a unique position to view in detail what some of us only hear about in bits and pieces, Dave lays out a mind-reeling mural of the future.  The video is almost a year old now, and it may well take us the nine remaining years to ponder and digest its implications.

The names of the trends give a glimpse of what we can expect: The Zettaflood, The Next Dimension, The Power of Power, and more.  Reading through the list (see below), it occurred to me that the first five of these trends all have something in common–they all point in some way to the value of real-time cloud computing:

1. The Internet of Things is Already Here
Electronic devices, sensors, and all kinds of everyday objects with RFID tags connected to the Internet now outnumber people who are connected by 2 to 1.  By 2020 there will be more than 6 connected devices per person.  Real-time data from these devices and sensors flowing through the cloud can serve as a world-wide nervous system.

2. The Zettaflood Is Coming  
Human efforts, combined with an avalanche of incoming data from all of these devices will soon produce zettabytes of information.  One zettabyte = 1 trillion terabytes, or 1021 bytes.  Much of this information will be needed instantaneously, and discarded as quickly, making real-time access that much more important.

3. Wisdom of the Cloud
Cisco’s Cloud CTO, Lew Tucker said, “By 2020 one-third of all data will live in, or pass through, the cloud.”  The expression “pass through” the cloud should not go unnoticed here.  We expect to see distribution of data in real time via the cloud becoming commonplace within the next ten years.

4. The Next Net
The continuing trend towards higher-speed, higher-reliability networking can only enhance today’s technologies for cloud-enabled real-time data connectivity, making them even more robust and reliable than they are today.

5. The World Is Flat and So Is Your Technology     
As concerned citizens in Japan were able to tweet out earthquake reports several minutes ahead of the US Geologial Survey, Evans predicts that we can expect the convergence of broadband, smart phones, and Internet TV to reach a point where everyone becomes a reporter.  He says, “You’ll be broadcasting to people’s televisions, in their homes, in real time.”

Exactly how these trends might shape our world in the coming ten years remains to be seen.  In 2021 we’ll be able to sift through the archives and dig up the presentation—if it hasn’t gotten completely lost in the zettaflood or been made inaccessible by ever-more-efficient data storage hardware—and see if these predictions came true.  Meanwhile, to start moving in that direction, we’ll keep our focus on real-time applications for cloud computing.

Trends Implications
1. The Internet of Things is Already Here Things used as data sources
2. The Zettaflood Is Coming are contributing staggering amounts of information,
3. Wisdom of the Cloud increasingly available on the cloud
4. The Next Net over a high-speed network,
5. The World Is Flat and So Is Your Technology moving from near time to real time
6. The Power of Power and enabled by low power consumption,
7. It’s All About You which can enhance our lives through innovations like brain-machine interfaces,
8. The Next Dimension products on demand,
9. Another Family Tree advanced robotics,
10. You…Only Better and a high-tech leap in the evolution of the species.
Source: Ten in Ten on CiscoLive, July 12, 2011

CEO Perspectives 4: Leading the Transformation

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Is cloud computing inevitable?  Some people seem to think so.  Try typing the words “cloud,” “computing,” and “inevitable” into Google and you’ll get millions of hits.  Last year cloud computing reached a peak on the Gartner Hype Cycle.  While the more conservative players are willing to sit back and take a wait-and-see approach, a growing number of companies are diving in, and leading the transformation.

According to Andrew McAfee in his article What Every CEO Needs to Know About the Cloud, there is a gradual but inevitable shift toward the cloud.  He expects those who get in early to be in an increasingly better position as time passes, while those who linger to be put at a greater and greater disadvantage, until they either join or get lost in the dust.  McAfee gives some general guidelines for starting a move into the cloud, which can be used by anyone interested in putting real-time data on the cloud.

Know Your Responsibilities
To start with, McAfee suggests becoming aware of legal implications.  Clouds in the sky have no respect for man-made concepts like country borders, but your data does not have the same luxury.  Some countries limit what kinds of data can be moved or stored outside their borders.  For example, the EU Data Protection Directive restricts data on personal status from passing through countries that do not provide an “adequate level of protection” for the data.  Other countries have  strict privacy laws for any data transmitted on a public network or stored in a cloud server.  You will need to verify that your system meets the legal requirements of all countries in which you expect it to function.

Understand the Risks
We talked about security risks last week, pointing out that they may be different than common wisdom would suggest.  Questions about cost and reliability were addressed in an earlier blog.  McAfee advises executives to become informed of the risks and limitations of cloud computing, involving their general counsels and compliance departments early on.  There are a few areas, such as data subject to export regulations or related to personal health information, that may warrant a conservative approach, but in general he advocates boldly moving forward.  Plant managers and engineers will of course need to take a close look at their specific circumstances to decide what parts of their data sets can be made available in a cloud application.

Evaluate Attitudes
As with any new undertaking, there will be different levels of interest and willingness to change, both within the organization and outside.  Those most eager to implement a real-time cloud system will need to gauge its appeal among key decision makers and managers who are expected to implement it.  McAfee says, “a CIO’s lack of enthusiasm about the cloud these days is about as red a flag as a factory manager’s disinterest in electrification would have been a century ago.”

At the same time, consider software vendors.  What is their attitude toward cloud computing?  What plans do SCADA suppliers and other providers of software for real-time applications have in place to support a move to the cloud?  Some may add the word “cloud” to their networked process control software, but does it really meet the core requirements for a real-time cloud system?

Experiment
Having done your homework, you are ready to try it.  McAfee suggests starting small.  Experiment.  He talks about non-real-time business systems, but the principle is the same.  Don’t expect to immediately move a whole SCADA system onto the cloud.  Maybe you can implement a web-based HMI to present a limited data set to selected customers.  Or possibly connect remote field devices to a cloud server for monitoring in a web browser.  As you gain experience, you may want to set up a private or a hybrid cloud.  Then, as time passes and cloud computing goes even more mainstream, you’ll be in a position to consider expanding further.

It is still too early in the history of cloud computing to know with absolute certainty that this is indeed the way of the future.  But things have reached a point where it would probably be wise to consider it seriously.  As consumer and business applications increasingly move into the cloud, real-time solutions won’t be far behind.  Somewhere between head-in-the-sand and off-the-deep-end, McAfee suggests a cautious, realistic, small-scale, try-and-see attitude to gain experience and build capabilities that may prove valuable in the near future.

CEO Perspectives 3: Reconsidering Security

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When the subject of cloud computing comes up, one question seems to always be lurking in the backs of our minds: Is it secure?  This is particularly true for real-time systems.  Indeed, many engineers are reluctant to share their data even with their own company’s IT department, much less put it on the cloud.  Yet pressure from management, associates, and customers to access data from real-time systems is causing more and more companies to consider cloud-based solutions.  When they take a serious look, they may find themselves reconsidering security—and their assumptions about it.

The inescapable fact of computers is that there will always be security threats.  Andrew McAfee put it this way: “The only way to have 100% computer security is to have zero computers.”  All systems, cloud-based or not, need to implement security.  What’s different about a cloud-based system?

When you think of cloud computing, think aggregation.  Cloud companies bring together many customers to provide top-quality software and services at very competitive prices.  The successful ones also provide top-quality security, because the size of their customer base makes them good targets for hackers.  To fend off attacks and protect their business, cloud companies thus need to expend more effort on security than most other companies.  They need to hire the best security experts, and maintain a higher standard of vigilance than a typical factory or water treatment plant.

An "Access Denied" message.A recent blog on CloudTech by ZapThink  mentions these factors in a comparison of public and private clouds.  They point out several ways that a private cloud, which tends to be more do-it-yourself in terms of security, can actually be less secure than a public cloud.  Factors such as infrequent hardware updates, less stringent testing, variable staff capabilities, and a lack of awareness of security risks even within firewalls all contribute to the possibility of less-than-optimal levels of security on home-grown systems.

In addition to external threats of malicious hackers, there is also the question of internal security.  You may have analysts in the head office, technicians out at a remote site, and operators on a production line all accessing the system, but different parts of it.  Different groups need to be identified, and individual authentication capabilities built into the security model on that basis.  The article “What Every CEO Needs to Know About the Cloud” states that because cloud computing was originally developed for individuals or peer groups rather than corporate systems, this has been a weak point for some cloud providers.  Vendors are aware of this issue, and most are expecting to provide administrative security functionality in their systems fairly soon.

The lesson here for anyone considering putting real-time data on the cloud is that there is no need to throw out the baby with the bathwater, citing lack of security.  For external threats, cloud systems may actually offer more protection than an in-house system.  These threats can be mitigated further by ensuring that all firewalls stay closed, and that there is a one-way flow of data to the cloud.  For internal confidentiality, any envisioned cloud system should be able to provide authentication and authorization as well as a traditional platform.  If there is as yet limited choice for such a system, more will become available soon.  Demand for cloud computing continues to grow.

CEO Perspectives 2: Changing Misconceptions

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Expanding into the cloud is like pioneering into new terrain.  Some have gone there and come back with amazing stories.  Others have moved out, lock, stock, and barrel, and keep writing letters, telling us how wonderful it is.  We may experience a longing for adventure and profit, but there are doubts and fears to overcome.  How much will it cost?  What will I have to give up?  What if something goes wrong?  How do I know I’ll be safe?

New terrain.Since cloud computing is new and unknown, it is natural that these questions arise.  For answers, we turn to seasoned travellers who have explored the new terrain and who also understand our concerns.  Last week we mentioned one such specialist, Andrew McAfee, a principal research scientist at MIT who studies how technology is changing the business world.  In his article  What Every CEO Needs to Know About the Cloud, McAfee addresses the concerns of the business community: cost, reliability, and security, in a somewhat unexpected way.  His insights suggest that we may be moving into a space where the old rules don’t always apply.

Take cost, for example.  It’s hard to predict.  There are some studies that show costs double when you move to the cloud, and yet other studies indicate that it is cheaper in the long run.  Which to believe?  McAfee says that it really doesn’t matter.  IT is such a small part of a company’s budget anyway–about 3.2% on average, according to Gartner–that cost is not a big issue.  Furthermore, with cloud providers taking advantage of the economies of scale, and with hardware prices going down all the time, the costs of cloud computing will be continually decreasing for the expected future.  So cost is not as big an obstacle as we might expect.

Reliability is another example.  People look at the Amazon outage of last year and ask, “How can we trust the cloud?”  McAfee points out that at least one company glided right through the crisis: Netflix.  They had anticipated such a scenario, and built redundancy into their system to withstand a service interruption.  So the show went on for Netflix, without missing a beat or dropping a customer.  What’s more, argues McAfee, many cloud services have a higher reliability record than on-premise implementations.  According to the Radicati Group, Gmail’s available up-time is over 99.9%, making it more than 30 times more reliable than most corporate email systems.

Whoa, hold on a minute there, partner.  We’re talking real-time here, not email.  Let’s bring the discussion up to speed and consider how all this applies to a mission-critical real-time system.  OK, the lesson from Netflix is useful.  A real-time cloud implementation should be able to provide some kind of redundancy, preferably through multiple vendors, or if not, at least through functionally isolated, physically separated systems.  At the same time, doing better than a corporate email provider sets a pretty low bar.   It begs the question:

Is it possible for a cloud system to be reliable enough for real-time data?

Which brings us to a final misconception, not specifically mentioned by McAfee, but important to us.  We need to clear up the either/or mindset.  We have to stop asking: cloud or no cloud?  Should I drop everything and move on to the bold, new frontier, or stay here with the wimps and Caspar Milquetoasts?  This is a false dichotomy.  Nowadays the cloud is more than an open public space “out there” that somehow receives and delivers data in vague and mysterious ways.  We have options, such as private clouds for tight control, and hybrid clouds to isolate the machinery, PLCs, and SCADA controls of an industrial plant system from managers and analysts who are authorized to access the plant data via the cloud.  In either scenario, the vital heart of the control system is not exposed to the cloud.

The important thing to remember is that the new frontier out there beckoning us onward is not so scary or inaccessible as it may seem.  It is possible to build an outpost, and still hold the main fort on your real-time data.  However, there is at least one more area of misconceptions to look at: security.  We’ll talk about that next week.

CEO Perspectives 1: Surprise Benefits

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Recently the Harvard Business Review reprinted an article by Andrew McAfee titled: What Every CEO Needs to Know About the Cloud.   McAfee is a principal research scientist at MIT who studies how technology is changing the business world.  In addition to providing a clear, concise introduction to cloud computing for a CEO, McAfee suggests that we don’t really know all the implications of cloud computing, and he points to a number of benefits that might come as a surprise.

To shake us out of our old habits of thinking, McAfee compares the shift from traditional IT into the cloud to a shift that took place in factories a century ago when steam power was replaced with electric power.  There were real costs involved in such a fundamental change: completely rebuilding production lines, buying and installing new equipment, and retraining or rehiring staff.  At a time when power was distributed mechanically from a central steam engine, few people could envision a factory where each tool has its own built-in electric motor.  Now it’s impossible to imagine ever going back.

In the same way, argues McAfee, the benefits from cloud computing often come in ways that exceed expectations.  He gives an example of a global contracting firm that implemented a cloud solution to provide remote access to reference data like estimates, blueprints, and images.  The time savings on data retrieval were substantial, and yet the company soon found out that a major bottleneck had been unexpectedly eliminated as well.  Before, to collaborate on such projects, an engineer would have to wait for the IT department to add the new user, give clearance for the FTP server, and provide space.  With the cloud system, the engineer can quickly enter the necessary access information and bring in a new collaborator right away, eliminating costly delays.

The article discusses other benefits of using a  cloud-based system, including providing an enterprise-wide platform for collaboration, opening new opportunities for data mining previously considered impossible, and readily enabling a space for development and hosting of new applications.  In summary, McAfee says that the cloud “allows companies to increase the scale and power of their IT and the speed at which it can be accessed and deployed.  It eliminates administrative headaches and works across locations, devices, and organizational boundaries.”

So how do these CEO perspectives apply to real-time data?  We’ve already discussed some of the benefits to expect from putting real-time data on the cloud.  What additional advantages does this new article suggest?

From our perspective, it implies the value of providing instant access to live data in real time to users in a collaborative environment.  It hints that data mining opportunities may open up when the coming “Internet of things” is connected in real time.  It leaves us wondering what would happen if an IT department could take even a part of the 89% of IT resources currently spent (on average) for infrastructure and maintenance and divert it to projects like creating seamless interoperability among all of a plant’s legacy equipment.

It is a little too soon to know exactly what to expect.  Those who implement early will be the first to find out.  And as the technology of cloud systems for real-time data matures, they will be well postioned to reap the benefits.

Predictions for the Cloud for 2012

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Every month the IBM cloudchat invites a deluge of tweets about a topic related to cloud computing.  A few weeks ago they asked for predictions for the cloud for 2012.  The replies from the all-star panel of Dr. Srini Chari, Judith Hurwitz, and Amy Wohl, as well as many others around the world came thick and fast—hundreds of tweets raining in during the hour-long session.

During the storm it was almost impossible to read, much less to ponder implications.  But I’ve had a few days now to digest the content a bit, and thought I’d share a few of these predictions, along with how they might apply to real-time cloud computing.  Here are some of the answers to the question:  Looking ahead into 2012, what predictions do you have for the industry?

Broad acceptance
Tweets like, “The cloud debate is over, it’s how do I get there now!“, “customers are no longer asking if cloud but when cloud,” and “Cloud is here to stay, evolution after distributed computing. No turning back,” make it clear that everyone was on the same page.  The common wisdom is that cloud computing will become widely accepted.  In fact, Judith Hurwitz went so far as to say, “companies that have ignored the cloud model might not figure out how to remain competitive,” and Srini Chari added, “no IT system except top secret installations can exist in isolation.”

Growth
As you might expect, it was widely agreed that cloud computing will continue to grow.  Predictions included increased private cloud adoption, significant growth in hybrid cloud, and further adoption by small and medium-sized businesses.  This tweet from Tina Williams at IBM sums it up: “Everything as a service.”

Implications
There is significant expectation that widespread acceptance and growth will lead to a greater number of cloud applications in both the business and consumer markets.  A number of tweets mentioned more mobile apps.  Amy Wohl pointed out that “Consumer applications will continue to push business applications to keep up.”  Another implication for general lifestyle change is that more and more people will be working and collaborating across the Internet.

Challenges
A variety of challenges were mentioned, ranging from technical issues like data latency to business concerns like pricing.  Among these, you could sense an awareness of a need for expanding our vision.  “In 2012 people will finally realize that cloud is ‘not your parents IT infrastructure’ – new approaches for better outcomes,” tweeted Angel Luis Diaz, of IBM.

What about real-time cloud computing?
All of these predictions have strong implications for real-time cloud computing in 2012.  Widespread acceptance and growth of the cloud means that people working with industrial and embedded systems may start looking for cloud-based solutions.  We expect that with increased implementation of real-time industrial applications in the cloud, consumer apps using real-time data won’t be that far behind.  In fact, they may lead the pack.  Either way, any kind of real-time cloud system, industrial or consumer, will depend on an infrastructure that is neither your parents’ IT infrastructure, nor an industrial SCADA system, nor even what we typically see for cloud computing.  Real-time cloud computing will certainly require “a new approach for better outcomes.”